1. Recent figures show market expansion—not a guaranteed margin
GACC stated on 23 July 2026 that China imported 1.868 million tonnes of durian in 2025, twice the 2022 volume, while import origins continued to expand. The figure confirms product flow at national level; it does not mean every grade, season or contract achieved the same price.
DITP reported on 20 August 2026 that China imported 1.07 million tonnes in the first half of 2026. At the same time, Southeast Asian producers faced overlapping harvests and buyers had more sourcing choices. Volume Growth and Price Realisation must therefore be read as separate evidence.
2. Import volume, market price and net receipt are different measures
Import Volume measures goods crossing a customs boundary in a period. Wholesale or Retail Price is observed at a market point and may include several cost and margin layers. Contract Price reflects agreed terms. Net Receipt is what remains after weight and grade adjustments, costs, damage, discounts and claims.
Comparing a city retail price directly with a farm-gate price—or dividing total import value by volume and calling it the grower price—can mislead because units, quality, timing, taxes, freight and trade terms differ.
3. Price Realisation Evidence File: seven fields
This is an editorial information framework, not an official standard, price guarantee or investment formula.
- Period & Market — date, season, city, channel and source
- Product Identity — origin, cultivar, fresh or frozen form, size, grade, ripeness and pack unit
- Price Layer — farm gate, packhouse, FOB/CIF, wholesale, retail or net settlement
- Trade Terms — risk-transfer point and responsibility for freight, insurance, tax and acceptance
- Currency & Unit — currency, referenced exchange rate, kilogram, carton, fruit or container, and weight basis
- Cost, Loss & Claims — packing, freight, cold storage, shrink, waste, discounts and claims
- Settlement Evidence — invoice, goods receipt, credit note, amount paid, date and variance from contract
4. Turn market signals into Hold, Reprice or Redirect decisions
When volume rises but grade, like-for-like price or sell-through evidence is missing, hold any profit conclusion and request more evidence. If the current price no longer covers the original cost structure, reprice or revisit size, grade, timing and channel rather than quietly weakening quality requirements.
A pressured grade may be redirected to a suitable processing channel, but safety, shelf life, cost and real demand still need proof. ‘Value added’ is not a substitute for a business case.
5. Evidence boundaries and claim discipline
The 1.868-million-tonne figure covers 2025 and was cited by GACC on 23 July 2026. The 1.07-million-tonne figure covers the first half of 2026 and appears in DITP’s 20 August 2026 report. Different periods and sources must not be combined into a new forecast without a stated method.
This article does not forecast durian prices, verify any grower or exporter profit, or claim that Siam Diamond has the contracts, sales, market share or Price Realisation system described. A transaction decision requires the actual contract, market evidence and lot-level cost data.
